Voters are unhappy with the president’s age, with immigration and with the economy. Poor Poll Performanceįirst, Biden is currently two points behind former president Trump in the polls, and this could get much worse. In reality, the chance of Biden withdrawing from the race could be about 20% based on poor performance in the polls, third party candidacies, and poor primary performance. President Biden has negative odds: this means betting markets are pricing zero chance of Biden not being nominated. The betting market for the Democratic nomination in next year’s presidential elections is grossly mispriced.
